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Date: 08 Oct 2006 17:16:06
From: multi
Subject: Interesting Stat (Nationwide Spoiler)
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I turned on TGC tonight to watch Golf Central, but the Nationwide Tour
event was running long. I don't follow that tour, but they did give
an interesting stat. Kevin Na was leading after 54 holes, and he hung
on to win, even after carding a double bogey on 18. They said that
this was the first time in 14 weeks that the 54-hole leader had gone
on to win.
With Tiger holding the 54-hole lead several times during his current
streak, his record of going on to win 38 out of 41 times has gotten a
lot of press, but I never considered that as one of his more
impressive records. I figure if he has the 54-hole lead, then he's
playing well, and if he's playing well, then he ought to win if he
starts Sunday with a lead. I guess it isn't really that easy, if the
Nationwide stat is right.
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Date: 08 Oct 2006 17:40:22
From: long&left
Subject: Re: Interesting Stat (Nationwide Spoiler)
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multi wrote:
> I turned on TGC tonight to watch Golf Central, but the Nationwide Tour
> event was running long. I don't follow that tour, but they did give
> an interesting stat. Kevin Na was leading after 54 holes, and he hung
> on to win, even after carding a double bogey on 18. They said that
> this was the first time in 14 weeks that the 54-hole leader had gone
> on to win.
>
> With Tiger holding the 54-hole lead several times during his current
> streak, his record of going on to win 38 out of 41 times has gotten a
> lot of press, but I never considered that as one of his more
> impressive records. I figure if he has the 54-hole lead, then he's
> playing well, and if he's playing well, then he ought to win if he
> starts Sunday with a lead. I guess it isn't really that easy, if the
> Nationwide stat is right.
IMO, without Tiger in the mix the stats would be similar on the PGA
tour. I played golf with a kid this morning, who was a guest of another
member of my club, who is trying to qualify for Nationwide tour events
at Monday qualifiers. At his last two qualifiers he shot 69 and 67 and
failed to qualify for either event. The competition now in the
professional golf ranks is very fierce and the chance that someone is
going to play really really well four days in a row in a tournament are
slim, on either the Nationwide tour or the PGA tour...with the exception
of Tiger.
btw, Kevin Na's double on 18 was a fluke. He had a 5 shot lead and lost
a bit of focus. He wanted to go for the green in two (par 5) but his
caddy talked him out of it. So he laid up and hit a mediocre 3rd shot,
then a nice chip to about 3 ft...and 3 putted. Never would have happened
if he would have only been leading by one shot. Glad to see he's back
after his hand injury early in the year. He's a great young prospect.
Dave
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Date: 09 Oct 2006 08:27:40
From: oconnell@slr.orl.lmco.com
Subject: Re: Interesting Stat (Nationwide Spoiler)
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Tony wrote:
> On 8, 8:40 pm, long&left <nos...@diespammers.com> wrote:
> > multi wrote:
> > > I turned on TGC tonight to watch Golf Central, but the Nationwide Tour
> > > event was running long. I don't follow that tour, but they did give
> > > an interesting stat. Kevin Na was leading after 54 holes, and he hung
> > > on to win, even after carding a double bogey on 18. They said that
> > > this was the first time in 14 weeks that the 54-hole leader had gone
> > > on to win.
> >
> > > With Tiger holding the 54-hole lead several times during his current
> > > streak, his record of going on to win 38 out of 41 times has gotten a
> > > lot of press, but I never considered that as one of his more
> > > impressive records. I figure if he has the 54-hole lead, then he's
> > > playing well, and if he's playing well, then he ought to win if he
> > > starts Sunday with a lead. I guess it isn't really that easy, if the
> > > Nationwide stat is right.
[snip]
> I seem to remember a Lee Travino quote about such a thing. He was asked
> if he'd rather have the lead of be off of it going into the last round.
> He said "Would you rather be rich or poor?"
>
> It's always better to have the lead, it means someone has to shoot a
> couple of strokes better than you do in the last round. Would you
> rather get strokes, or give them? Still, if you look at the variation
> in round to round scores, a stroke or two advantage is a nice lead, but
> hardly means you can mail in the last round.
>
> Even the best player doesn't have the lowest round each time in a 72
> hole match. They are just low enough so she (or he) is overall the
> stroke leader.
[snip]
Tiger once observed that a player rarely has two really low rounds
in a row. So a guy that plays into the lead with a really low round on
Saturday, is ripe for the picking on Sunday. It's not so much that you
don't want to have the lead going into Sunday, it's that you want to
have gotten in the lead by good steady play, not some Saturday hot
streak. I'd suspect that the Nationwide tour is probably a tad more
prone to Saturday hot streaks than the PGA TOUR.
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Date: 09 Oct 2006 09:33:01
From: Miss Anne Thrope
Subject: Re: Interesting Stat (Nationwide Spoiler)
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So, when did they change the meaning of the word interesting?
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Date: 09 Oct 2006 04:39:11
From: Larry Bud
Subject: Re: Interesting Stat (Nationwide Spoiler)
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multi wrote:
> I turned on TGC tonight to watch Golf Central, but the Nationwide Tour
> event was running long. I don't follow that tour, but they did give
> an interesting stat. Kevin Na was leading after 54 holes, and he hung
> on to win, even after carding a double bogey on 18. They said that
> this was the first time in 14 weeks that the 54-hole leader had gone
> on to win.
Which is probably why so many of those guys are on the Nationwide tour.
If they knew how to win, they wouldn't be there.
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Date: 09 Oct 2006 18:01:55
From: Kevin D. Timm
Subject: Re: Interesting Stat (Nationwide Spoiler)
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Larry Bud wrote:
>
> multi wrote:
> > I turned on TGC tonight to watch Golf Central, but the Nationwide Tour
> > event was running long. I don't follow that tour, but they did give
> > an interesting stat. Kevin Na was leading after 54 holes, and he hung
> > on to win, even after carding a double bogey on 18. They said that
> > this was the first time in 14 weeks that the 54-hole leader had gone
> > on to win.
>
> Which is probably why so many of those guys are on the Nationwide tour.
> If they knew how to win, they wouldn't be there.
:)
That's exactly what I was going to post, you beat me to it.
Just like all the BB shows, there's a reason those folks aren't on the
tour they're striving for; they're not good enough.
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Date: 09 Oct 2006 03:25:32
From: Tony
Subject: Re: Interesting Stat (Nationwide Spoiler)
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I seem to remember a Lee Travino quote about such a thing. He was asked
if he'd rather have the lead of be off of it going into the last round.
He said "Would you rather be rich or poor?"
It's always better to have the lead, it means someone has to shoot a
couple of strokes better than you do in the last round. Would you
rather get strokes, or give them? Still, if you look at the variation
in round to round scores, a stroke or two advantage is a nice lead, but
hardly means you can mail in the last round.
Even the best player doesn't have the lowest round each time in a 72
hole match. They are just low enough so she (or he) is overall the
stroke leader.
Which, by the way, partly explains the Ryder Cup outcomes.
On 8, 8:40 pm, long&left <nos...@diespammers.com > wrote:
> multi wrote:
> > I turned on TGC tonight to watch Golf Central, but the Nationwide Tour
> > event was running long. I don't follow that tour, but they did give
> > an interesting stat. Kevin Na was leading after 54 holes, and he hung
> > on to win, even after carding a double bogey on 18. They said that
> > this was the first time in 14 weeks that the 54-hole leader had gone
> > on to win.
>
> > With Tiger holding the 54-hole lead several times during his current
> > streak, his record of going on to win 38 out of 41 times has gotten a
> > lot of press, but I never considered that as one of his more
> > impressive records. I figure if he has the 54-hole lead, then he's
> > playing well, and if he's playing well, then he ought to win if he
> > starts Sunday with a lead. I guess it isn't really that easy, if the
> > Nationwide stat is right.IMO, without Tiger in the mix the stats would be similar on the PGA
> tour. I played golf with a kid this morning, who was a guest of another
> member of my club, who is trying to qualify for Nationwide tour events
> at Monday qualifiers. At his last two qualifiers he shot 69 and 67 and
> failed to qualify for either event. The competition now in the
> professional golf ranks is very fierce and the chance that someone is
> going to play really really well four days in a row in a tournament are
> slim, on either the Nationwide tour or the PGA tour...with the exception
> of Tiger.
>
> btw, Kevin Na's double on 18 was a fluke. He had a 5 shot lead and lost
> a bit of focus. He wanted to go for the green in two (par 5) but his
> caddy talked him out of it. So he laid up and hit a mediocre 3rd shot,
> then a nice chip to about 3 ft...and 3 putted. Never would have happened
> if he would have only been leading by one shot. Glad to see he's back
> after his hand injury early in the year. He's a great young prospect.
> Dave
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Date: 09 Oct 2006 21:02:19
From: Tighthead
Subject: Re: Interesting Stat (Nationwide Spoiler)
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Kevin D. Timm wrote:
> Larry Bud wrote:
> >
> > multi wrote:
> > > I turned on TGC tonight to watch Golf Central, but the Nationwide Tour
> > > event was running long. I don't follow that tour, but they did give
> > > an interesting stat. Kevin Na was leading after 54 holes, and he hung
> > > on to win, even after carding a double bogey on 18. They said that
> > > this was the first time in 14 weeks that the 54-hole leader had gone
> > > on to win.
> >
> > Which is probably why so many of those guys are on the Nationwide tour.
> > If they knew how to win, they wouldn't be there.
>
> :)
>
> That's exactly what I was going to post, you beat me to it.
>
> Just like all the BB shows, there's a reason those folks aren't on the
> tour they're striving for; they're not good enough.
The other factor is that scores on the Nationwide are pretty low, and
the events are real shootouts. If you have the lead and shoot a 68,
you very well may get beat. The courses are set up for guys to go low.
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Date: 13 Oct 2006 22:24:08
From: The World Wide Wade
Subject: Re: Interesting Stat (Nationwide Spoiler)
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In article <ib4ji2d8vc2493sll67se98k89br5noa2d@4ax.com >,
multi <multi@asm.org > wrote:
> With Tiger holding the 54-hole lead several times during his current
> streak, his record of going on to win 38 out of 41 times has gotten a
> lot of press, but I never considered that as one of his more
> impressive records.
I wonder what the win ratios of Hogan, Nicklaus, Palmer, Watson,
Trevino, ... were after 54 hole leads.
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