Date: 29 Nov 2006 12:11:18
From: The_Professor
Subject: Global Warming
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I got this email from the ESA, which I consider to be pretty solid with
respect to the scientific view on the issue. As it seems to be an issue
of concern, people may as well know what they are talking about when
they talk about what science has to say:
The Ecological Society of America
For Immediate Release: 29 November 2006
Contact: Nadine Lymn (202) 833-8773 x205; nadine@esa.org
or Annie Drinkard (202) 833-8773 x211; annie@esa.org
ESA Statement on Massachusetts et al. vs. U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency
The Certainty of Global Climate Change
In response to the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency's (EPA) argument in the U.S. Supreme Court
case, Massachusetts et al. vs. U.S. EPA et al.
that it would not regulate carbon dioxide due in
part to scientific uncertainty, Alan Covich,
President of the Ecological Society of America,
the nation's premier scientific society of
ecological scientists, expressed dismay over the
agency's disregard for the widespread scientific
consensus on the facts and effects of climate
change. Covich said, "ESA strongly supports the
scientific arguments regarding the certainty of
climate change made by Massachusetts et al. as legitimate and
accurate."
The case currently before the Supreme Court was
brought by a group of states, cities, and
nonprofits that argued that, under the Clean Air
Act (CAA), carbon dioxide is a pollutant and
contributor to climate change and as such, the
EPA must regulate carbon dioxide emissions. EPA
argues, however, that it does not have the
authority to regulate carbon dioxide and even if
it had, the agency would not regulate carbon
dioxide due in part to scientific uncertainty.
The court's decision will determine whether the
CAA mandates that EPA regulate carbon dioxide,
which may be a watershed decision for US action regarding climate
change.
The CAA states that absolute scientific certainty
is not necessary for regulation of a pollutant.
Instead, the pollutant must "reasonably be
anticipated to endanger public health or
welfare." [Section 202(a)(1)] In arguing that
carbon dioxide cannot reasonably be anticipated
to endanger public health or welfare due to
scientific uncertainty, EPA chose only the points
highlighting the absence of certainty from the
2001 National Research Council Report on climate
change, but disregarded a general scientific
consensus that climate change is indeed
occurring. While certain facets of climate are
less certain than others, current scientific
understanding verifies and supports the following statements:
* The physics of the greenhouse effect are well
understood by scientists. Certain atmospheric
gases (including carbon dioxide) absorb
radiation, causing a warming effect, and that
greater concentrations of these gases will lead
to an increase in surface temperatures.1
* It is certain that human activities have
increased the concentrations of carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere above levels in the geologically
recent historical record, which has led to the
recent global climate change. Carbon dioxide
levels remained constant from the period
1000-1750, then increased more than 25% in the
last 150 years.1,2 This had caused average global
surface temperatures to rise approximately 0.6=BAF;
global average sea level to rise 0.1-0.2 meters;
and ice extent in the Arctic to decrease by about 40%.2, 3
* It is virtually certain that greenhouse gas
emissions, continued at the current rate, will
cause additional warming. At the current
emissions rate, carbon dioxide levels will double
by 2100, leading to a likely temperature increase of 2.7-10.4=BAF. 2, 3
* Climate change will increase threats to human
health, especially in developing countries and
lower income populations. Further increases in
surface and ocean temperatures will cause an
increase in drought, flood, and hurricane
intensities, disrupt agricultural production, and
expand the range of disease vectors. 2, 3
* The ecological effects of climate change are
already observable and have been well-documented.
Ecosystem disruptions including fire, drought,
invasion of species, habitat shifts and coral
bleaching events result in reduced biodiversity,
increased extinction risk, and loss of ecosystem services. 2, 3
* The exact timing and magnitude of climate
change depend on climate inertia and future
emission rates. The elevated greenhouse gases
currently in the atmosphere will continue to
change the climate for an unknown period, even if
all emissions are capped immediately. However,
capping carbon dioxide emissions will
significantly increase the timing of climate stabilization.2,4
* It is likely that significant, intense, and
abrupt events caused by climate change (such as
local heat waves, intense droughts, or floods)
will occur. The absence of a complete
understanding of certain global processes may
prevent predictions of events, including
thermohaline circulation reduction, significant
losses to Antarctic ice sheet, and altered Asian monsoons. 2, 3
Although current scientific understanding, by
definition, constantly changes, these statements
represent the latest information and are
supported by a wide group of climate scientists.
Many other scientific bodies, including the
American Geophysical Union (AGU), the Geological
Society of America (GSA), and the joint National
Academies of Science (NAS), have issued similar statements:
AGU: http://www.agu.org/sci_soc/policy/positions/climate_change.shtml;
GSA: http://www.geosociety.org/aboutus/position10.htm;
NAS: http://nationalacademies.org/onpi/06072005.pdf
Said Covich, "Communication and widespread
awareness of climate change information remains
essential not only to conservation of natural
resources, but also to the general well-being of
the nation. The recognition of these facts by the
Court in Massachusetts et al. vs. U.S. EPA et al.
will provide significant support to the certainty
of climate change that the administration cannot ignore."
The Ecological Society of America (ESA) is a
scientific, non-profit, 9500-member organization
founded in 1915. Through ESA reports, journals,
membership research, and expert testimony to
Congress, ESA seeks to promote the responsible
application of ecological data and principles to
the solution of environmental problems. ESA
publishes four scientific, peer-reviewed
journals: Ecology, Ecological Applications,
Ecological Monographs, and Frontiers in Ecology
and the Environment. For more information about the Society visit
www.esa.org.
1 Energy Information Administration. (2004).
Greenhouse Gases, Climate Change, and Energy.
Retrieved October 10, 2006,
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggccebro/chapter1.html
2 International Panel on Climate Change. (2001)
Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. October
16, 2006. http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/vol4/english/index.htm
3 National Assessment Synthesis Team, US Global
Change Research Program. (2000) Climate Change
Impacts on the United States. October 18, 2006.
http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/overviewfindings.htm
4 Committee on the Science of Climate Change,
National Research Council. (2001) Climate Change
Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions.
October 18, 2006. http://newton.nap.edu/execsumm_pdf/10139.pdf
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